Seven Years On: Reflecting on the CSIRO’s Workplace Safety Futures Report

General

In 2018, the CSIRO’s Data 61, in partnership with Safe Work Australia, released the Workplace Safety Futures report. The report made bold predictions of the megatrends set to reshape work health and safety (WHS) and workers’ compensation in Australia. It explored six major forces, from automation to the gig economy, that would challenge existing systems and call for fresh approaches to risk and recovery.

Seven years later, how accurate were those predictions? What’s emerged that we didn’t anticipate? What are we doing well, and where is there still room for improvement?

Here’s a look back – and forward.

1. The extending reach of automated systems and robotics

Predicted: A reduction in physical injuries as machines take over “dull, dirty and dangerous” work.

What Happened: The uptake of automation has been strong in manufacturing, logistics, and agriculture.

The Reality: Physical injuries have dropped in some sectors, with the proportion of workers experiencing a work-related injury or illness falling from 4.2% in 2017–18 to 3.5% in 2021–22^[1]Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023), Work-Related Injuries, 2021–22. Retrieved from ABS.gov.au. WHS systems are still catching up with new risks, including the psychological impacts of surveillance tech, algorithmic management, and job insecurity. There are also changing risks at the increasing intersections between human and machine interactions – how can you ensure that people understand and manage the hazards and risks surrounding automation?

What’s Needed: Updated risk assessment models, guidance on human-AI collaboration, and clearer responsibility frameworks in shared human-machine environments.

2. The rising issue of workplace stress and mental health issues

Predicted: Mental health would become a leading WHS concern.

What Happened: Absolutely accurate. Mental health claims are now rising faster than any other category. According to Safe Work Australia, mental health conditions accounted for 9% of serious workers’ compensation claims in 2021–22 – a 36.9% increase since 2017–18 — compared to an 18.3% increase in overall serious claims^[2]Safe Work Australia (2023), Psychological Health and Safety in the Workplace – Media Release & Supporting Data. Retrieved from Safe Work Australia.

Progress: ISO 45003 has been a game changer in putting psychosocial hazards on the agenda. All States and Territories across Australia have updated legislation or Codes of Practice to further support effective psychological health and safety management in the workplace.

Still Challenging: Many organisations remain unsure how to identify and manage psychosocial risks. There’s also a gap in leadership capability around holistic psychological health and safety management, oversight and reporting.

What’s Needed: Continued development and growth in the integration of psychological health and safety risks into safe systems of work (e.g., taking on the guidance in ISO 45003), support for psychologically safe leadership, and policies that go beyond employee assistance programs.

3. Rising screen time, sedentary work, and chronic illness

Predicted: More screen time, more sitting, more chronic disease.

What Happened: This one was spot on. Office workers now average 10+ hours of screen time a day. Remote work and digital dependency have compounded sedentary behaviours.

Still Lagging: Ergonomics often stops at “buy a better chair.” Long-term health impacts like diabetes, cardiovascular issues, and musculoskeletal conditions need broader prevention strategies.

What’s Needed: WHS frameworks that treat sedentary risk as seriously as physical hazards, with active work design, movement-friendly environments, and better health literacy.

4. Blurring the boundaries between work and home

Predicted: Work/life boundaries would erode.

What Happened: Remote and hybrid work models exploded post-COVID. The 9–5 is no longer the default.

Progress: In 2024, Australia passed its Right to Disconnect law, giving employees the legal right to reasonably refuse contact outside of working hours.

Cultural Lag: Many still feel pressure to stay connected and available. The law is important, but culture change will take time.

What’s Needed: Manager training on respecting digital boundaries, clear communication policies, and role modelling from leadership.

5. The gig and entrepreneurial economy

Predicted: Growth in freelance, app-based, and contract work.

What Happened: While still a small share of the workforce, platform work has grown, especially in food delivery, rideshare, and creative industries.

System Gaps: Gig workers often lack access to WHS protections or workers’ compensation – raising long-term concerns for public health and social safety nets.

What’s Needed: New models of insurance and WHS coverage that are portable, flexible, and suited to non-traditional work.

6. An ageing workforce

Predicted: Australians would stay in the workforce longer.

What Happened: This prediction was well on the mark. Australians are increasingly working into older age. In the 20 years leading up to April 2021, the workforce participation rate of older Australians more than doubled, from 6.1% in 2001 to 15% in 2021. The increases have been significant for both men and women: older men’s participation rate rose from 10% to 19%, while the rate for older women nearly quadrupled, from 3.0% to 11%^[3]https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/older-people/older-australians/contents/employment-and-work.

Positive Shifts: There’s growing awareness of the need for age-friendly work design, and some industries are making conscious efforts to retain and support mature workers.

Not There Yet: Many WHS systems still default to assumptions based on younger, more physically able workforces. Risk assessments, training methods, and physical environments are not always adapted to support older workers.

What’s Needed: More consistent inclusion of age-specific and worker-specific risk assessments, flexible work design, and ongoing dialogue about ability, adaptability, and career longevity.

So, was the report right?

Broadly, yes. The CSIRO’s foresight into how digital technologies and demographic change would impact WHS has proven remarkably prescient. But the pace of change has been faster than many systems could adapt to, and some issues, like mental health, have become even more pronounced than anticipated. Covid-19 also significantly accelerated some of the megatrends, like the blurring of home and work life, mental health, and rising screen time.

What are we doing well?

• Recognising psychosocial risk as a key WHS concern
• Moving from awareness to action with standards like ISO 45003
• Beginning to legislate cultural change (like the Right to Disconnect)
• Improving workplace inclusivity and adaptation for older workers

What needs more attention?

• Embedding WHS principles in flexible and non-traditional work
• Adapting risk frameworks to human-tech collaboration
• Prioritising movement and physical health in desk-based work
• Building leadership capability for a wellbeing-driven future of work

Final thoughts

The world of work has changed. Our WHS systems must keep changing – not just to catch up, but to anticipate what’s next. Now more than ever, we need bold, future-focused conversations between government, business, and workers. The 2018 report helped start that dialogue. Seven years on, it’s time to evolve it further.